Sudan war ropes in each of its neighbours

Kenyan government spokesperson Isaac Mwaura may have had a slip of the tongue when he named countries allegedly fuelling the Sudan war. Mr Mwaura’s office later deleted his comments on X, but he had said them on the record at a press conference in Nairobi on Monday.“There are external actors. For example, Egypt and Iran have been seen to support the SAF (Sudan Armed Forces), while the UAE (United Arab Emirates) backs RSF (Rapid Support Forces) driven by interest in Nile waters, gold, agriculture and red sea access. The alleged mercenary involvements… The regional impact is that the war fuels arms proliferation, refugee flows and regional instability in eastern African region,” he said.

While deletion of the comments may soften the blow of any diplomatic reactions from these countries, the Spokesperson wasn’t saying anything new.

In fact, what he said was contained in a report by a panel of United Nations (UN) experts on Sudan, who blamed Kenya, Chad and Uganda of being conduits of arms into Sudan while smuggling out gold.

Read: Nairobi tells off Sudan over claims of Kenya fuelling conflictThese countries officially denied the claims and the UAE, currently sitting on the UN Security Council, has repeatedly given statements accusing the Sudanese junta of delegating responsibility."The UAE strongly rejects the suggestion that it is supplying weaponry to any party involved in the ongoing conflict in Sudan," said Salem Aljaberi, UAE's assistant minister for security and military affairs, when asked on the issue in May.“These claims are baseless and lack substantiated evidence," he said in a statement to The EastAfrican then.

Chad, too, denied a role in Sudan when the SAF accused N'Djamena of fuelling the war.

Since fighting started in April 2023, Ethiopia and Egypt seemed to be on the side of SAF, seeking to cement ties that have traditionally existed. But Ethiopia’s headache is now on whether a split in the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) could make some fighters sympathetic to the Sudanese warring sides.

Last week, Ethiopian media reported that a faction of TPLF had supported the RSF, although the Sudanese rebels denied this claim. Already, the TPLF, which had signed a peace deal with the government in Addis Ababa to stop the war in Tigray, has splintered.

Libya, too, is no longer a bystander. Tensions escalated last week along the volatile triangle where Sudan, Libya, and Egypt converge, following fierce clashes between the SAF and the RSF.

Read: Sudan strife headed Libyan way, security experts warn on elusive search for peaceThat the two countries were somehow linked to the conflict in Sudan was an open secret. But direct accusations from the Sudanese junta of the involvement of Libya on the side of RSF could complicate relations.

Both sides have issued conflicting accounts of recent battles and traded accusations of regional interference, raising fears of further internationalisation of Sudan’s deepening civil war.

On Wednesday last week, the RSF announced it had seized full control of the strategic “Triangle following what it described as a swift and decisive military operation. The paramilitary group said the move was a “turning point” in the war and had significant implications for regional security.

RSF said it had launched a surprise attack against “mercenary militias and terrorist battalions” operating in the area. The group claimed that the opposing forces fled after suffering heavy losses, leaving military equipment, weapons, and vehicles, many of which were seized by RSF fighters.

The RSF emphasised the geographic and economic importance of the Triangle, describing it as a key hub for migration, smuggling, and cross-border trade between North and East Africa. The group also accused the Sudanese military junta, now headquartered in Port Sudan, of arming militias to destabilise the region.

The RSF claimed that local residents had taken to the streets in spontaneous celebrations following the RSF’s takeover and vowed to continue what it called the “liberation of the nation’s entire territory.”The SAF responded by accusing Libya’s Khalifa Haftar-led army and the UAE of directly supporting the RSF offensive. In a strongly worded statement, the Sudanese military described the RSF’s cross-border operation as “a blatant act of aggression.”“The direct involvement of Haftar’s forces alongside the militia is part of a broader international and regional conspiracy against Sudan,” the army said on June 10.

Read: Sudan sues UAE for ‘enabling genocide’It vowed to defend Sudan’s sovereignty against “foreign-backed attacks,” and warned that the army would prevail despite what it termed as “intensifying regional interference.”On Wednesday, SAF spokesperson said: “As part of its defensive arrangements to repel the aggression, our forces today withdrew from the Triangle area located at the border between Sudan, Egypt, and Libya.”Both the UAE and Libya’s eastern-based Libyan National Army (LNA) led by Khalifa Haftar dismissed Sudan’s accusations. Haftar said the claims were “false and unfounded.” The LNA countered that the Sudanese army was attempting to deflect attention from its internal collapse by manufacturing external threats.“We have not taken sides in the Sudanese conflict,” the LNA said in an official statement. “But we have recorded repeated violations by Sudanese forces on our territory.”The LNA being in the crosshairs of the SAF is interesting because they are both allies of Egypt, which has traditionally supported the SAF.

In Libya, two parallel governments exist, one of which is supported by the UN, and the other by regional allies. Haftar has become an important buffer for Egypt.

The LNA said it reserved the right to respond to any breach of Libyan sovereignty and insisted that it has played a crucial role in securing the border and combating irregular migration and terrorism. Libyan officials also noted that they had welcomed thousands of Sudanese civilians fleeing the war since 2023 without receiving any official support from Khartoum.

Two days before the RSF claimed control of the Triangle, it had launched a separate offensive on several camps belonging to what it called “joint militias” near the Libyan border, including the notable Jebel Kasso camp.

According to video footage released by the RSF, it captured large quantities of ammunition, fuel, and military supplies during the assault. Military sources reported that some fleeing militia fighters sought protection from the Egyptian army after retreating into the Great Desert.

Last week, the same joint militias had reportedly suffered a heavy defeat at the hands of Libya’s “Sabal al-Salam” battalion, after they allegedly attacked a Libyan army patrol near Gabal El Uweinat and seized its equipment.

Analysts warn that growing foreign involvement in Sudan’s civil war could turn localised battles into a wider regional crisis. The Triangle is of particular strategic concern, given its location as a critical corridor for migration, armed movement, and illicit trade across North Africa.

With diplomatic efforts largely stalled, recent border clashes add a dangerous new layer to an already protracted conflict, threatening to destabilise the region further.

Additional reporting by Aggrey Mutambo. Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. ( Syndigate.info ).