Why Putin could be a major loser from war in Iran

The Israel-Iran conflict is a high-stakes moment for Vladimir Putin who risks losing an important ally in the region in the Islamic Republic.

The Russian President is already manoeuvring to capitalise on the crisis by positioning himself as a power broker alongside the US, and further ingratiating himself with Donald Trump.

Putin and Trump held a lengthy call on Saturday to discuss the escalating situation in the region, with Putin offering to step in.

“He feels, as do I, this war in Israel-Iran should end, to which I explained, his war should also end,” said Trump in a post on his Truth Social platform.

Russia has signalled its willingness to mediate talks between the two sides in an effort to safeguard its strategic relationship with one of its few remaining allies in the Middle East.

Russia has strong ties to the governments of both Israel and Iran , and has already spoken to both the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu , and Iranian President, Masoud Pezeshkian, in separate calls since the conflict erupted.

The call between Trump and Putin “demonstrates that Russia is going to be a player in this”, said Marina Miron, war studies researcher at King’s College London.

“It’s a way for Vladimir Putin to claim, at least to Donald Trump, that he wants to find a solution and that Russia is the key to finding that solution.”

Iran’s fall would weaken Russia’s influence

Iran is an important ally for Russia and the regime’s fall would represent a strategic loss in the region for Moscow. Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Iran has been supplying Moscow with “kamikaze” Shahed drones .

Iran’s importance to Russia increased even more following the fall of both countries’ ally in Bashar al-Assad’s Syria , resulting in the possibility Russia could lose important military bases in the country.

Russia and Iran formalised their relationship with the signing of a strategic partnership agreement in January, which included provisions for both countries to counter shared threats, hold joint military exercises, and “ensure regional security”, although it notably did not include a mutual defence pact.

“Russia cannot afford to allow Israel to pursue regime change in Iran” for a variety of reasons, including military considerations, power projection, “and in terms of international reputation of what it means to be Russia’s ally and have a strategic partnership with Russia”, said Dr Miron.

“Ultimately, there is not going to be significant military support for Iran by Russia, and Russia has got the best of the deal in terms of the fact that Iran gave a lot of its technology in regards to the Shahed drones to Russia, and they’re now being built in Russia.”

Stephen Hall, assistant professor in Russian and post-Soviet politics at Bath University, told The i Paper that there was likely to be fear in the Kremlin that what happened to Assad could happen to the Islamic Republic.

“It is certainly worrying for the Russians,” he said. “It’s probably frustrating for the Kremlin that the Israel-Iran conflict has happened and that the Israelis have shown themselves to be far more militaristically better than the Iranians, and the Iranian regime is currently tottering.”

Putin “doesn’t like change. He certainly wouldn’t want democratisation in Iran, because that would weaken Russia’s cards in the Middle East”.

Furthermore, there is the insult to Moscow’s pride in the apparent ease with which Israel has assaulted its ally. The Russian political scientist Andrei Kortunov writes in the business newspaper Kommersant this week: “The fact remains that Russia was unable to prevent a mass strike by Israel on a country with which five months ago [Russia] signed a comprehensive strategic partnership.

“Clearly Moscow is not prepared to go beyond political statements condemning Israel, it’s not ready to provide Iran with military assistance.”

Michael Spagat, conflict analyst and chair of the board at Every Casualty Counts, said the conflict was “embarrassing for Putin”, because it “compromises his prestige that an ally of his can be attacked and damaged apparently so readily by Israel”.

He said: “Arguably Iran is the main remaining ally of Putin’s in the region and it would be a big blow to his prestige if, in the extreme, the regime fell there and was replaced by a different one.”

However, he pointed out that with Russian troops bogged down in their bloody war of attrition in eastern Ukraine, there was little that Moscow could practically do to help defend it.

“You know, he’s giving verbal assurances, but I think he can hardly afford to give them much military assistance,” Spagat said.

Putin manoeuvring to gain Trump’s favour

However, despite the obvious dangers to Russia’s prestige and power in the Middle East, Putin is already manoeuvring to use the levers it does have and maximise his country’s advantage.

As evidenced by his phone call, Putin is using the situation to outwardly align himself closer with Trump, positioning Russia as a fellow key power broker in the region alongside America.

Putin is also currying favour with Trump in a way that could draw America even further into Moscow’s orbit – and distract it from trying to stop the war in Ukraine.

For Dr Hall: “Putin is going to try and portray himself, portray Russia, as he always has done, as a great power, as an indispensable power.

“I imagine, even if Vladimir Putin has no intention of actually solving the crisis regarding Iran, then he will keep on portraying himself as being indispensable to solving the crisis in Iran, and Donald Trump will keep buying it for quite a while longer as he has consistently bought everything else that the Kremlin has showed him.”

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For the Kremlin, the belief that only the Russians and the Americans, or possibly the Chinese, can solve the Iran crisis, with Moscow playing an essential mediating role, satisfies Putin’s need for Russia to be seen as a global superpower on the level of the Soviet Union once more.

Putin’s careful flattery and unusual hold over Trump has paid off for it so far elsewhere, in Europe, with Trump continuously repeating Kremlin narratives regarding the war in Ukraine , suggesting Russia could be granted its war aims in Ukraine, belittling and insulting his allies , and focusing his ire on Kyiv .

Dr Hall added: “The Russians have been quite clear from the very beginning when it came to Donald Trump that Ukraine was a sideshow, that the Americans needed the Russians far more in terms of coping, dealing with the Middle East and various other things.

“So that certainly is something that the Kremlin is going to try and play the Americans in, in terms of Trump needs Putin more than Putin needs Trump. And Trump needs Putin in order to try and solve the Iran issue and to bring this to a beneficial solution for the Americans.”