The four ways the Iran-Israel conflict could lead to wider war

Israel has launched a wave of attacks on Iran , killing senior military leaders and nuclear scientists, as well as hitting sites linked to Iran’s nuclear programme.

In response, Iran has launched more than 100 drones at Israel .

It marks the latest escalation in an ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel. But what happens now?

Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a former senior British Army officer, said that while Iran has been humiliated by the attacks, it has limited actions for a response.

“What you would have expected a few years ago is that Iran would rely on its proxies, particularly Hezbollah and the Houthis and Hamas, [to respond],” he said. “But the Israelis have pretty much destroyed Hezbollah . They are no longer an effective fighting force. The Houthis in a similar fashion, and what’s left of Hamas is focused on Gaza.”

“Strikes in the Red Sea will likely resume, the ceasefire with the United States may unravel, and we shouldn’t be surprised if Saudi Arabia and the UAE are dragged back into direct conflict in Yemen.

“Attacks by the Houthis on US military bases in the Gulf, the Horn of Africa, and naval forces at sea are also highly plausible.”

3. UK supplying intelligence for further action

If the conflict expands to bring in the US, the UK may provide intelligence support but is unlikely to deploy troops, De Bretton-Gordon said.

“Certainly the music coming out of Whitehall at the moment is to sit back,” he said.

“However, the UK did support the Americans and the Israelis in April and October to take down missiles fired at Israel with RAF jets out of Cyprus.

“Britain still has some very considerable intelligence collecting capability, and Britain historically has a role and an interest in Iran.

“I would not expect to see any conventional military capability being involved here, but I am sure if the US or others require British support on the intelligence side, the Government would consider that.”

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4. Middle East is destabilised

Further attacks risk widening the attacks into a regional conflict, Chatham House director Maddow Brown said.

“There is concern across the Gulf that Iran may choose to hit back not just at Israel but at neighbours who are close to the US,” she said.

“The strikes could destabilise Syria where the success of the new government – or otherwise – will affect the wider region.”

Ozcelik said that Iran’s retaliation “risks reshaping the strategic landscape of the Middle East”.